The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.3 percent in March to 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in February and a 0.5 percent increase in January.
“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in March, which more than offset February’s slightly negative revised figure,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The improvement in the U.S. LEI, with all ten components contributing positively, suggests economic momentum is increasing in the near term. The widespread gains among the leading indicators are supported by an accelerating vaccination campaign, gradual lifting of mobility restrictions, as well as current and expected fiscal stimulus. The recent trend in the U.S. LEI is consistent with the economy picking up in the coming months, and The Conference Board now projects year-over-year growth could reach 6.0 percent in 2021.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in March to 104.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in February and a 0.5 percent increase in January.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased 0.5 percent in March to 105.1 (2016 = 100), following a 1.6 percent increase in February and 2.7 percent decrease in January.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, May 20 at 10 AM ET.
For further information contact:
Jonathan Liu
732.991.1754
JLiu@tcb.org
With graph and summary table
April 22, 2021
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Continued to Fall in April
May 17, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell in March
April 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Inched Up in February
March 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Further in January
February 20, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the U.S. Inched Down in December
January 22, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
LEARN MORETechnical Notes for the US LEI
June 21, 2024 | Guide & Reference
Using the Leading Credit IndexTM to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle…
December 20, 2011 | Report
Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for …
December 20, 2011 | Report
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
Inflation, Labor Markets, and the Fed
May 11, 2022 11:00 AM ET (New York)